How to Read This
Understanding the science and data behind our fertility calculators. All models are based on published research and clinical studies.
AMH & AFC Calculator
This calculator estimates expected oocyte (egg) yield and euploid embryo outcomes based on Anti-Müllerian Hormone (AMH) levels and Antral Follicle Count (AFC).
Methodology
The calculator uses regression models derived from clinical IVF data correlating AMH and AFC with egg retrieval outcomes:
Expected Eggs = f(AMH, AFC, Age)
Euploid Rate = age-based decline function
Expected Euploid = Expected Eggs × Euploid Rate
Age-Based Euploid Rates
| Age |
Approximate Euploid Rate |
| Under 30 | 60-65% |
| 30-34 | 55-60% |
| 35-37 | 45-50% |
| 38-40 | 30-35% |
| 41-42 | 20-25% |
| 43+ | 5-15% |
Key Assumptions
- Standard IVF stimulation protocols
- Normal fertilization rates (~70%)
- Blastocyst culture (day 5/6)
- PGT-A (genetic testing) performed on embryos
Data Sources: Models based on published literature analyzing correlations between ovarian reserve markers and IVF outcomes, including large-scale registry data and meta-analyses of age-related aneuploidy rates.
IVF Euploid Embryo Calculator
This comprehensive calculator provides expected euploid embryo counts with uncertainty quantification using Monte Carlo simulation.
Pipeline Stages
- Eggs Retrieved: Based on AMH/AFC input
- Mature Eggs: ~75% of retrieved eggs (typical maturation rate)
- Fertilized: ~70% of mature eggs (ICSI or conventional IVF)
- Blastocysts: ~40% of fertilized reach blastocyst stage (day 5/6)
- Euploid Embryos: Age-dependent percentage of blastocysts
Uncertainty Modeling
The calculator runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to account for biological variability at each stage. This produces:
- Expected value (mean outcome)
- 95% confidence interval (range of likely outcomes)
- Distribution visualization showing probability of different outcomes
Why use uncertainty ranges? IVF outcomes are inherently variable. Even with identical starting parameters, results can differ significantly due to biological randomness, egg quality variations, and technical factors. The confidence intervals help set realistic expectations.
Attrition Rates
| Stage |
Typical Success Rate |
| Retrieved → Mature | 75% |
| Mature → Fertilized | 70% |
| Fertilized → Blastocyst | 40% |
| Blastocyst → Euploid | Age-dependent (see above) |
Data Sources: Based on aggregated IVF clinic data, SART (Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology) registry statistics, and peer-reviewed studies on embryo development and aneuploidy rates.
IVF Attrition Calculator (Simplified)
A streamlined visualization of the IVF pipeline from eggs retrieved through to live births, using standard attrition rates at each stage.
Pipeline with Live Birth Rates
Eggs Retrieved → 75% → Mature Eggs
Mature Eggs → 90% → Survive Thaw (if frozen)
Survive Thaw → 70% → Fertilized
Fertilized → 40% → Blastocysts
Blastocysts → Age-dependent → Euploid Embryos
Euploid Embryos → 65% → Live Births
Live Birth Rate per Euploid Transfer
The calculator assumes approximately 65% live birth rate per euploid embryo transfer, based on published data showing that chromosomally normal embryos have significantly higher success rates than unscreened embryos.
Note: This simplified model uses fixed percentages for illustration. Individual clinic success rates may vary based on protocols, laboratory quality, and patient populations.
Miscarriage Risk Calculator
Estimates miscarriage risk for naturally conceived pregnancies based on maternal age and gestational week.
Risk Modeling
The calculator uses epidemiological data showing how miscarriage risk varies with:
- Maternal Age: Risk increases significantly after age 35
- Gestational Week: Risk decreases as pregnancy progresses
Age-Based Risk (Week 6)
| Maternal Age |
Approximate Risk at 6 Weeks |
| Under 25 | ~10% |
| 25-29 | ~10-12% |
| 30-34 | ~12-15% |
| 35-39 | ~18-25% |
| 40-44 | ~35-50% |
| 45+ | ~50-75% |
Important Limitations
Natural Conception Only: This calculator applies to naturally conceived pregnancies. IVF pregnancies, especially those using PGT-A tested embryos, have significantly different risk profiles due to embryo selection for chromosomal normality.
Risk decreases with each passing week: Once a heartbeat is detected and the pregnancy progresses past 8-10 weeks, miscarriage risk drops substantially.
Data Sources: Population-based studies and meta-analyses examining pregnancy outcomes across different maternal ages and gestational stages. Models incorporate data from clinical pregnancies (with confirmed heartbeat).
General Assumptions & Limitations
What Our Models Account For
- Age-related decline in egg quality and quantity
- Standard IVF laboratory protocols and success rates
- Population-level biological variability
- Published clinical research and registry data
What Our Models Cannot Account For
- Individual diagnoses (PCOS, endometriosis, male factor, etc.)
- Clinic-specific protocols and success rates
- Embryologist skill and laboratory quality variations
- Specific medication protocols and stimulation responses
- Uterine factors affecting implantation
- Partner/sperm quality variations
- Genetic factors and family history
- Lifestyle and environmental factors
Individual Variation: Real-world outcomes can differ significantly from model predictions. These calculators provide statistical averages to inform expectations, not guarantees of individual results.
Model Updates
We regularly review and update our models based on:
- New published research and clinical studies
- Updated registry data (SART, CDC, etc.)
- Advances in IVF protocols and technology
- User feedback and validation against real outcomes
Questions About Our Methodology?
We're committed to transparency. If you have questions about how our models work or want to discuss specific aspects of the calculations, please contact us.
